Wednesday, February 5, 2020

Alice thought the whole thing very absurd, but they all looked so grave that she did not dare to laugh

So the reason that the Iowa Caucus was such a total screw up was that they didn't want to be threatened with a lawsuit treat from Bernie Sanders like they were in 2016?   And yet it's the Bernie Sanders guys who are inventing the rumors and raising the  conspiracy theories surrounding the release of partial results - apparently something Sander's people demanded - and other such screw ups.

I know you're probably thinking that I'm beating a dead horse but if this is how big a screw up Iowa was, it's only the first of the caucuses, last time Iowa had problems, Nevada was a complete and total disaster.  You're going to be hearing all kinds of news stories about how Democrats have fucked up out of the caucuses till the last one.  The Bernie Bots are still whining about the ones in 2016.  

And the Iowa caucus debacle was predicted, especially by those with experience with it and those running it.  This Atlantic article published two days ago has some of the details of how they knew they were going into a disaster, one of their own and Bernie Sander's making.*

A crush of new Democratic voters, mobilized by a wave of anti-Trump energy, will arrive at their caucus precinct, and there will not be enough voter-registration forms. 

I'll start here because anyone anticipating "a crush of voters" in the most well attended caucus is harboring a deluion, even the most well attended caucuses have a fraction of the turnout you can expect from a primary where people cast a vote on a ballot in the way of honest elections.  I don't remember who it was who said it but they noted if a Third World country or a recent democracy had elections by caucus people would be calling for the UN to step in to document the corruption.  There's a reason that Lewis Carroll mocked caucuses in Alice in Wonderland**.  

The lines will be long, and some Iowans, many of them elderly, will shiver in the cold for hours before getting inside. The caucus itself will be pandemonium: There won’t be enough preference cards for caucus-goers to write down their favorite presidential contenders. Voters will be incensed when they learn about the new realignment rules. There will be miscounts and recounts. And at the end of the night, once all the numbers have been crunched and recrunched, Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders will each claim victory.

And for anyone who is innocent of what caucuses are like because their state wisely gave them up long ago, THIS IS GUARANTEED TO HAPPEN WHEN YOU'RE STUPID ENOUGH TO RETAIN CAUCUSES.  And I will remind you, THEY RELY ON MOST ELIGIBLE VOTERS NOT SHOWING UP. The only times I have seen actual pandemonium at our caucus was when a lot of people who had never been to one of the stupid things showed up, ususally it's people who know how stupid it's going to be and who get on with it so it will be over. 

This is Sandy Dockendorff’s nightmare scenario for tonight’s caucus. The 62-year-old former nurse, who is running a caucus in the small town of Danville, laid it all out for me over coffee last week. Her worst fears are unlikely to be realized. “The party has done everything it can to make sure that’s not the case,” she said. But the caucus is extremely complex, and rule changes threaten to make it even more bewildering for voters to navigate and complicated for the press to cover. The biggest fear: Democrats may not have a clear winner—a scenario that could further threaten Iowa’s imperiled first-in-the-nation position.

"The caucus is extremely complex and rule changes threaten to make it even more bewildering for voters to navigate,"  Well, as noted, it was made more complicated even than before largely at the behest of the Sanders inner circle. 

There is no way to make Caucuses "transparent" as was the demand because despite people standing and making their support for a candidate in public - as used to be done to prevent democracy in 19th century Britain and is done in dictatorships elsewhere now - the process will always be a shit-show, locally, on a state level and, through the corruption that comes with that brain-dead 19th century form, will infect the whole process.  And if it doesn't, the national news media will give everyone the impression that it does BECAUSE THE PROCESS IS INHERENTLY CORRUPT. 

I defended the Democratic National Committee in comments on one of The Young Turks' videos yesterday because it wasn't their fault the Iowa Democrats caved to their boy Bernie to make the process so much more absurd than it was guaranteed to be.  Cenk is a friggin' liar as well as an asshole Bernie bot.  

But I do blame the Democratic National Committee for going along with those states, such as my own, where, for whatever stupid reason, they retain the caucuses.  

The Democratic National Committee could put an end to the quadrennial shit show by stepping in and saying that delegates chosen by caucus will not have a role in selecting the Democratic candidate for president, that only those delegates chosen by primary elections will go to the convention.  That would do it.  If states refused, through legislative Republican rat fucking, the Democratic Party should step in and run the kind of registered Democrats only, by-mail primary.  I can guarantee you that that would get a far higher participation than the caucuses.  Even in Iowa where they make such a big thing of it, in a year when Democrats should have come out in droves, they couldn't exceed their dismal participation rate in 2016.  

I do blame the Democratic National Committee for allowing this to continue.  I blame the Maine Democratic Party, the Iowa Democratic Party etc. for keeping this awful, anti-democratic self-inflicted damage and allowing it to continue.  

* The new rules were mandated by the DNC as part of a package of changes sought by Bernie Sanders following his loss to Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential primaries. The changes were designed to make the caucus system more transparent and to make sure that even the lowest-performing candidates get credit for all the votes they receive.

And it’s not just Iowa that is affected by the changes. The Nevada Democratic caucuses on Feb. 22 will also report three sets of results.

** ‘What I was going to say,’ said the Dodo in an offended tone, ‘was, that the best thing to get us dry would be a Caucus-race.’

‘What is a Caucus-race?’ said Alice; not that she wanted much to know, but the Dodo had paused as if it thought that somebody ought to speak, and no one else seemed inclined to say anything.

‘Why,’ said the Dodo, ‘the best way to explain it is to do it.’ (And, as you might like to try the thing yourself, some winter day, I will tell you how the Dodo managed it.)

First it marked out a race-course, in a sort of circle, (‘the exact shape doesn’t matter,’ it said,) and then all the party were placed along the course, here and there. There was no ‘One, two, three, and away,’ but they began running when they liked, and left off when they liked, so that it was not easy to know when the race was over. However, when they had been running half an hour or so, and were quite dry again, the Dodo suddenly called out ‘The race is over!’ and they all crowded round it, panting, and asking, ‘But who has won?’

This question the Dodo could not answer without a great deal of thought, and it sat for a long time with one finger pressed upon its forehead (the position in which you usually see Shakespeare, in the pictures of him), while the rest waited in silence. At last the Dodo said, ‘Everybody has won, and all must have prizes.’

‘But who is to give the prizes?’ quite a chorus of voices asked.

‘Why, she, of course,’ said the Dodo, pointing to Alice with one finger; and the whole party at once crowded round her, calling out in a confused way, ‘Prizes! Prizes!’

Alice had no idea what to do, and in despair she put her hand in her pocket, and pulled out a box of comfits, (luckily the salt water had not got into it), and handed them round as prizes. There was exactly one a-piece all round.

‘But she must have a prize herself, you know,’ said the Mouse.

‘Of course,’ the Dodo replied very gravely. ‘What else have you got in your pocket?’ he went on, turning to Alice.

‘Only a thimble,’ said Alice sadly.

‘Hand it over here,’ said the Dodo.

Then they all crowded round her once more, while the Dodo solemnly presented the thimble, saying ‘We beg your acceptance of this elegant thimble’; and, when it had finished this short speech, they all cheered.

Alice thought the whole thing very absurd, but they all looked so grave that she did not dare to laugh; and, as she could not think of anything to say, she simply bowed, and took the thimble, looking as solemn as she could.

3 comments:

  1. Bernie was very disappointed the turnout was no greater than in 2016. I'm guessing now he wanted the chaos that didn't happen, especially if he didn't get resounding victory.

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    1. I've been monitoring the Bernie Bot YouTube channels for the rumor mongering and vague accusations of conspiracies and have heard exactly one, one of them, Michael Brooks, once, discourage that kind of thing as he and Sam Seder rumor mongered and made vague accusations of conspiracies, all of everyone against Bernie, whose defeat obviously means more to some of them than their candidate winning. That's one of the sure signs of a cult, the total conviction that it's always about your guy. They're not much different than the Laroucheies.

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  2. Off topic, but reading this made me think of your various posts on Marilyn Robinson. A thoughtful conversation between her and President Obama. Since he mentions reading her while campaigning in Iowa, maybe it isn't so far off the topic. It's unimaginable that Trump would have this kind of conversation with anyone, or that that the religious figures drawn to Trump could themselves be so insightful. https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2015/11/05/president-obama-marilynne-robinson-conversation/

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